It’s now 6 years since I started my first project on future resilience, and 2 since the current one began. Now you can benefit, in a few minutes, from a few of the insights which several man-years of work have provided.
These projects have been going long enough that some of the trends we foresaw are actually happening. I’ve learned that some changes can arrive amazingly fast, and are in your face (like climate change this summer), others are so subtle and dispersed that you have to know what you’re looking for in order to spot the trend (such as IT disruptions: see more below).
Here are three specific trends which I’ve highlighted in an earlier issue on this newsletter, and where I suggest you raise your resilience:
- Climate change: Longer, hotter summers have been forecast for a while, but few expected one so extreme, almost globally. My advice: expect bigger extremes of all types – rain, sun, wind, cold, sometime soon. And prepare yourself and your home for them.
- Food supply and prices: one of my insights from my project is the probability of large price increases, and shortages of food. These will arise from climate change, population growth, and other factors. My advice: if you can grow your own food, do. Think about an emergency stock of basic food at home.
- IT and technology hiccups: this one is subtler, but it’s happening. Try to notice how often you see ‘random’ dropouts of your email or mobile service, of online payment in stores or banks (e.g. TSB). I share the view of some experts that at least some of this disruption is deliberate not just random, and it could get dramatically worse. My advice: read this blog for practical tips.
Junior doctors enjoying time out in Nature group at Hazel Hill Wood
Another major focus of my project is the lifeskills that we need, as individuals and groups, to handle levels of change, uncertainty and complexity which are indeed tough, and will keep rising. Here are some positive news on this front:
- My hope that people can learn resilience skills in Nature, and through parallels with Nature, has been validated by a wide range of groups – including junior doctors.
- There is growing awareness in some front-line services, notably the NHS, that current ways of working are causing widespread burnout, and change must come soon. We are getting good interest in our Action Learning Programme.
- What you won’t learn from mainstream media is how many organisations and individuals are doing great work on resilience: our project is building contacts with some of them.
- An upside of Donald Trump: people are far more aware of fake news and social media manipulation. That’s progress!